你會說資料的語言嗎? Excuse me, do you talk data?

你會說資料的語言嗎?  Excuse me, do you talk data?

我未來的工作在哪？Where is my future job?

English version below

Tableau 是美國一家專門幫資訊視覺化的軟體公司。他們辦了一個行銷活動叫“跟我說資料”。這一個活動鼓勵大家使用免費的 “Tableau Public” 軟體，來製作各種圖表，幫助作者利用圖表來分享他們的故事。

資料已然成為新一代的語言，而很多公司在尋找會說這種新語言的人。在醫療業，資料可以證明公司產品的醫療效用。在零售業，資料可以幫助公司了解消費者的行為，讓公司去決定下一季的商品。在製造業，資料可以幫助公司了解產線的運作，找出流程瑕疵和資源浪費。

我自己一個人時很愛搞資料分析。雖然過程很費神耗時，但對我來說跟料理做菜一樣樂趣無窮。我會在網路上像買菜一樣找資料，然後再把資料切割整理成容易消化的格式。最後，我會嘗試各種不同的“烹飪”方式，想辦法分析出資料裡的規則。

當你花了數十個小時，忽然發現了一個規則，讓你驚呼 “這乍看起來很怪，但是想一想又有道理” 。那種感覺，就好像你在河水裡掏到了金子一樣。

最近我在挖的資料是美國勞工統計處的資料。美國勞工統計處從2002年以來，每年公布在各個產業不同的職位的就業人數和平均薪水。因為我在醫療設備產業擔任行銷的工作，我第一個問題是 “我的工作未來有沒有保障？”

我開始畫出在美國的醫療產業中，自2002年以來有多少行銷經理就業，以及他們的平均薪水為何。可以看到圖中紅色線代表醫療設備產業，大約聘請了1650位行銷經理，而他們的薪水每年調升大約3.5%。

Figure 1

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比較起來，紫色的製藥業的行銷經理就比較大起大落。在過去幾年，製藥業聘用了1200到2400位行銷經理。所以對我來說，醫療設備產業對行銷人員來說，還是一個穩定的產業。

橘色的居家醫療服務，有可能是未來看好的一個產業。在2016年，居家醫療服務的行銷經理平均薪水成長了20%, 同時聘用的人數也翻倍到達450人。 事實上，在居家醫療業的行銷經理平均收入，已經追上醫療設備，製藥業的水準。

但是除了醫療業，有別的產業我可以轉行當行銷嗎？

當我們把圖表衍生到所有的產業，我們可以看到一些活躍的點點。這些點點代表該年度該產業，行銷經理的平均所得與就業人數。點點後面長長的線，代表過去幾年的變化。

首先，我們注意到在右邊有兩個產業，他們分別是顧問業以及電腦系統設計業。這兩個產業自2013年起，每年有增加1000多名行銷經理，但是薪水不漲。這或許代表著美國新興了許多小的顧問以及設計公司，而許多這些小公司都需要行銷人員來幫助公司的服務打出名氣。

Figure 2

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接著，我搜索類似於醫療設備業，但是過去幾年不斷增加行銷經理的薪水與就業人員的產業。以下列出特別突出的產業：

• 經銷電子產品
• 科學研究服務
• 經銷專業商用設備
• 其他專業技術服務
• 其他資訊服務
• 資料計算儲存服務
• 電腦及週邊產品生產
• 廣告行銷服務

整體來說，美國製造業越來越倚賴服務業以及通路商，來幫助製造業銷售他們的產品。因此，服務業以及通路商不斷增加對行銷人員的需求，希望能在市場中奠定公司的訂位。

在過去，行銷理論講的是賣產品的四大基礎 “產品，定價，通路，促銷”。但隨著製造業被服務業取代，行銷四大基礎逐漸更改為新的名詞：關注用戶數，社群傳播速率，顧客價值。

在傳統行銷，公司首先針對客戶族群設計出產品，然後想辦法把產品賣給客戶。在服務和通路的時代，公司需要先設計目標客戶的體驗流程，吸引到使用者的關注，然後去想可以賣給使用者什麼產品。例如像美國的Netflix公司起家是靠郵寄DVD來挑戰DVD出租店的經營模式，而後轉為線上電影模式，近年來開始以自製的影集吸引各種使用者。

這一個改變也衝擊著就業市場。在過去，年輕人被培訓成為各種專家。公司看每個人的履歷就像在看產品的規格表。當員工被聘用，通常他們會在同一個單位工作很多年。

在今天，公司面臨的市場變化越來越快速。事實上，麥肯錫的總經理Dominic Barton說到，在1935年，美國S&P500上市公司的平均壽命為90年，現在公司的平均壽命已經縮減到約18年。因此，公司在尋找像 “顧問” 一樣的員工，可以在短時間內幫助公司轉型，適應市場的潮流。這些員工就像 “服務業” 一樣，在不同的公司與產業之間流動。

在未來，辦公室可能會消失。大部分的員工都會遠距工作，而重複性質高的工作都會被人工智慧取代。讓人能與電腦區別的，會是我們適應環境的能力：觀察，想像，計畫，嘗試，創造。

Tableau, a data visualisation company, created a campaign called “Talk data to me”.  The campaign encourages users to create and share their data visualisation with “Tableau public”, the company’s free data tool.

Data is becoming a new language itself, and companies are looking for people who speak the language. In healthcare, “talking data” means supporting medical claim with facts and figures. In retail business, “talking data” means making sense out of consumer data, to gain insight and support decision making. In manufacture, “talking data” means probing into the production line, hunting out bugs and squeezing out slacks.

I love playing with data myself. The process can be tedious, but for me it draws similarity to cooking. Shopping for the correct data set, trimming the data until it is nicely structured and digestible. Than you try out different ways to analyse the data, and bring out the best of it.

The rewarding moment comes when you found an insight, the moment you say “this looks odd…but makes sense”. It really feels like the glimpse of shinny gold, smiling at you through the pan. 

Recently, I have been drilling through the data set from the US bureau of labor statistic (BLS). The BLS has published since 2002, the average annual wage and number of people employed, among different occupations in different industries according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 

Since I am working as a product manager in the medtech industry, my question is “How secure is my job in the future? “

I start out by plotting out healthcare industries. The chart (figure 1) here shows since 2002, how different healthcare industries hire and pay marketing managers.

Medical device industry employs around 1650 marketing managers in US, and the average wage inflates at 3.5% annually. 

Figure 1

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In comparison, marketing managers in pharma companies goes through a more boom and bust cycle. The number of employed marketing managers in pharma swings from 1200 to 2400 people. So for me, medical device seems so far a stable place to be as a marketing professional. 

Home health care services, might be an industry to look out in the future. The annual wage for marketing managers has sharply increased by 20% in 2016, and the workforce has also doubled to 450 people. In fact, the average marketing manager pay in home healthcare is catching up with medical devices and pharma. 

But beyond healthcare, are there other industries that I might transfer my skill set as a marketing professional?

By expanding the chart into all industries (figure 2), you can see a clusters of active industries, with the number of marketing managers employed and the average wage has changed significant over the last decade. This is illustrated by a dot representing the current year, and a long line behind it showing past data points.

Figure 2

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The first cluster is the consulting industry and computer system design industry on the far right.  Both industries started hiring 1000 more marketing mangers every year since 2013, yet the pay has remain stable. This might represent a boom of small consulting and design firms in the US, which most of them needs a marketing function to help build brand awareness.

Next I filter for industries that are in the same cluster as medical devices. Some of these industries are outgrowing others in demand for marketing managers.

• Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers
• Scientific Research and Development Services
• Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
• Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
• Other Information Services
• Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services
• Computer and Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing
• Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services

As we can see, the growing industries are services in IT, Scientific and Advertising, also wholesale of electronic and commercial equipment.

My take away is that manufacturing sector is relying more and more on service and channel providers to help sell their products. Therefore, the demand for marketing managers has increased among service and channel providers, with hope to gain and secure their market position.

As the marketing focus shifts from product to services, the traditional 4P (Product, pricing, placing, promotion) marketing model is losing its relevance. The traditional model are replaced by new terms such as user engagement, viral coefficient and customer lifetime value.

In traditional marketing, companies first design a product for a target segment, then figure out how to sell products to customer. With channel and service providers, they have to first design the customer experience for a target segment, get traction, then think about the product they could sell them. Think Netflix, which first focused on growing their user base by mailing DVD and internet TV, then source for better content targeted at different audiences.

This shift also applies in the job market. In the past, people are trained to become specialist. Companies look through CVs like a product specification, and employees who fit in a role tend to work in the same function for years.

Today, companies face rapid changes in the market. In fact, according to McKinsey's Dominic Barton, in 1935 the average lifetime of a S&P 500 company was 90 years, now the average lifetime of companies has shorten to 18 year. Therefore, companies are looking for “agent” employees who can help the organisation change and adapt to the market in a short time. These employee work as “service provider”, shifting from different companies and industries wherever they are needed. 

In the future, offices might completely dissolve as most people will work from a distance and most repetitive work are replaced by artificial intelligence. What keeps humans unique, will be our ability to adapt: observe, imagine, plan, try and create.

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